So far my three year record is 13 out of 15. Let’s see how I do this year!

Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer – Rule #1 of Best Supporting Actress is that if there is a “hot young thing” nominated, it goes to them, regardless. I don’t think Jessica Chastain quite qualifies (even though she basically made that film.) Thus we go to rule #2: a flashy novelty performance by an old person or a minority. Done.

Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer – Old guy, up for an Oscar two years ago and snubbed, Academy has recently decided they like him, and he’s playing a gay man. Case closed.

Best Actress: Viola Davis –  They’re not going to give Meryl three for a film nobody saw (or liked,) are they? Rooney and Glen are out, so it’s between Viola and Michele Williams. My gut tells me to take Michelle Williams: Octavia is a lock for Supporting Actress, and the Academy has been following a one-per rule lately when it comes to the acting awards. They also like giving it to young bombshells, and Michelle Williams is as close as we’ve got this year. Plus her role was flashy – Viola’s was not. However, Williams’ nomination feels just like her nomination for Blue Valentine – she has no buzz, and it was a film that no one saw. My wife and I were going to go see it today, but it is suddenly out of theaters in NYC (except for the “rat theater” in Chelsea) right before Oscar weekend – not a good sign at all. I might get burned here, but Viola Davis will get the Oscar, by process of elimination, literally.

Best Actor: Jean Dujardin – Does the Academy ever give big Oscars to foreign dudes who don’t speak? No, but who else is there??? Here’s the case for George – he gave a good speech (the most important predictor of future Oscars) when he won for Syriana, and they love him to distraction, just like everybody else. But George didn’t do anything in this film! It was totally blah performance, aside from his good looks and great voice, and the role was completely lame. The other three are all non-starters. No one saw A Better Life (my wife turned it off after 10 minutes.) Gary Oldman in a remake of a thirty year old miniseries? I don’t think so. The Brad Pitt nomination is just a complete joke.

Best Picture: The Artist –  Everyone is into the Artist because they all want to “look smart,” and the Academy is probably no different. I can’t see The Descendants pulling this off – it’s too blah.

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This year’s nominated films were downright embarrassing, in my book, almost as if the Academy could barely get interested in nominating anything at all. All the hubub about nominating 10 and then the third year into it they can’t even find 10 to nominate!!! I know this was a really weak year for films in general, but there were a bunch of solidly good movies that were completely ignored – in particular: Win Win, The Whistleblower, and We Bought a Zoo, all three of which are better than anything in the list below (that I saw, anyway.) Let’s review the nominees, with links to my reviews, and the film’s Irreviews rank score (10=best, 1=worst) in parentheses:

The Artist (2) – There’s a reason silent films went the way of the Dodo. No one we know who saw this actually liked it.

The Descendants (2) – A boring, completely inconsequential film with a bad script.

Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close – Did not see (I experienced 9/11 at close range, I don’t need to live it again in any form.)

The Help (4) – A solid but unremarkable mainstream social issues film.

Hugo – Did not see.

Midnight in Paris (5) – Woody Allen doing his usual Woody Allen thing – nothing more.

Moneyball (5) – A middling sports movie … up for best Oscar?

The Tree of Life – Did not see (the preview left me very cold.)

War Horse (1) – The worst in tacky schmaltz.

Would it have killed them to throw in Win Win to make an even 10, and honor at least one really good film?