Last year I got 4 of 5, missing only Hurt Locker (who would ever guess that obscure piece of trash would win?!) The year before I got all five perfectly. Let’s see how I do this year!

Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver – Normally it would be Amy Adams, because she’s young, she’s hot, and she has red hair. But the voters know Bale is going to win from The Fighter, Portman is going win best actress because she is young and even hotter, and Adam’s performance is a little understated for the Academy. Melissa Leo and Jacki Weaver are basically playing the same role, and Weaver was better. The King’s Speech is going to take other awards, so that rules out HBC. The kid from True Grit might be a dark horse, but I don’t think her role was flashy enough. I don’t know how many members of the Academy actually saw Animal Kingdom, but I’ll bet they all saw the trailer! Can Weaver win an Oscar based on one line in a trailer? I think so!

Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale – This is obvious – it’s just the kind of hammed-up performance the Academy goes for. It was clear after the first 2 minutes of The Fighter that he is going to win. In my annual Irreviews Movie Awards I picked Renner (from The Town) who turned in a phenomenal and much more subtle performance. Ruffalo is cool, good-looking and has been recognized as a fine actor for some time now, but The Kids are Alright is kind of yesterday’s news at this point. Rush has one already and I think that Winter Bone guy was just too disgusting and weird to win.

Best Actress: Natalie Portman – Isn’t it obvious? She’s young, she hot, it’s a “freak role” and she’s been showing her naked ass on screen with alacrity for some time, signaling to the Academy that she’s ready for an award. Will they repay her “efforts”? I think so, and if not, it still worked out well for us movie goers! Kidman and Benning each have one. Jennifer Lawrence was good in Winter’s Bone, but she’s the token “kid nomination.” No one saw Blue Valentine.

Best Actor: Colin Firth – He’s nominated for a “freak role” and has momentum from being passed over the year before – that should do it in a weak field. They no longer owe Jeff Bridges anything, especially since this is the same role they gave him an award for last year (old coot, pissing himself.) Bardem already has one, and foreign films don’t tend to win the main awards very often. Franco is kind of a dark horse – not sure what to make of him, especially as I did not see the performance, but Danny Boyle got his recognition just two years ago, and 127 hours sounds like a strange and very limited film. He could surprise, I suppose, but I don’t think so. As for Eisenberg: no opinion, except to say that if he wins it’s an especially sad day for the Academy.

Best Picture: The King’s Speech – Okay, this whole ten movie thing is getting really interesting because it’s becoming obvious that the Academy really can’t find ten good or even ten decent films to nominate! It’s embarrassing. Let’s quickly review what they had to resort to in order to find ten films (with links to the selections that I’ve reviewed here)

Black Swan – A B-grade horror flick.

The Fighter – A very flawed sports movie with a few flashy supporting performances.

Inception – An incoherent, headache-inducing, CGI craptacular.

The Kids Are All Right – A solid but unremarkable mainstream indie film with big stars.

The King’s Speech – An enjoyable but very “Hollywoody” little historical feel-good movie. Inoffensive, enjoyable, but not much more than that.

127 Hours – Did not see, but come on – a guy gets trapped under a rock and (eventually) saws off his own arm.

The Social Network – A misogynistic and boring piece of trash

Toy Story 3 – Insipid tripe (I couldn’t even stomach the task of reviewing it, it’s that bad!)

True Grit – A just okay Western.

Winter’s Bone -A pretty good, offbeat indie film, but nothing great.

The Academy seems to be openly contrasting with The Golden Globes these days, so that should mean no Social Network (thank God!) I think it’s going to be The King’s Speech – it’s a feel-good film with snob appeal – that seem to fit the bill this year!